Saturday, September 8, 2001

Gramm's decision wakes up Democrats

AUSTIN - That loud whoop you heard when Sen. Phil Gramm announced his retirement came from Texas Democrats who couldn't contain their excitement.
   Gramm, a Republican, will leave the Senate in January 2003, unless he bows out early so Gov. Rick Perry can appoint a successor until the November, 2002 election. Gramm's decision to retire has created uncertainty in Texas politics, and it is unclear how many candidates will vie to replace him. The former economics professor won the seat in 1984 after Republican John Tower decided not to run. That race drew 71 candidates.
   Democrats see Gramm's retirement as their best chance in years to regain respect and capture some statewide offices. Texas Democrats need to seize this opportunity, which they haven't had since 1990, when Ann Richards was elected governor and other Democrats won most of the top elected offices.
   Republicans, however, are not publicly expressing any concern about their stronghold on statewide elected offices.
   Still, Democrats have reason for hope. At least two popular Hispanic candidates will boost their chances of capturing statewide offices -Tony Sanchez of Laredo, who is campaigning for governor and Dan Morales, former Attorney General who is running for U.S. Senate. And former Comptroller John Sharp, a Democrat who narrowly lost to Perry in the lieutenant governor's race in 1998, is also a strong candidate for lieutenant governor.
   Sanchez and Morales will increase Hispanic voter turnout and interest and Hispanics traditionally lean toward Democrats. The Hispanic vote is crucial in Texas; just ask Perry, who recently spent time in Mexico to learn Spanish.
   But Republicans also have some strong potential Senate candidates who are Hispanic. U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla, R-San Antonio, said he was giving a Senate run very strong consideration. And Republican Railroad Commissioner Tony Garza is an appealing and likeable potential candidate for the GOP.
   Nevertheless, Democrats are exuding a confidence that hasn't been seen in Texas for several years. ''Phil Gramm and the Republicans know that 2002 is going to be a Democratic year in Texas,'' said Molly Beth Malcolm, Texas Democratic Party chairwoman. ''Texas Democrats have the momentum and a great pool of talent for the campaigns next year.''
   According to the most recent Texas Poll, Gramm was in for a fight against Morales. The Poll showed Gramm with 45 percent of the vote, compared with 35 percent for Morales and 18 percent undecided.
   That's a strong showing for Morales, especially since he has hasn't been in statewide office for several years and Gramm has represented the state in the U.S. Senate for 17 years.
   ''Phil Gramm could see the handwriting on the wall, so he decided to retire himself rather than be retired by Democrats,'' Malcolm said.
   Democrats are elated
   It's unlikely Gramm was too concerned about the Democrats, but Malcolm's point is well taken. Democrats believe they have a more qualified and more appealing slate of statewide candidates in 2002. Sanchez is clearly a better-financed candidate than Garry Mauro, who was beaten like a drum in 1998 by the enormously popular Gov. George W. Bush.
   Democrats are elated that Republicans won't have Bush at the head of the ticket in 2002. Four years ago, Bush led a Republican sweep of all statewide elected offices. But without a big name such as Bush or Gramm atop the Republican ticket, GOP candidates are likely to face a tougher time. Since the 1998 Republican drubbing, Democrats have been talking about 2002 as their comeback year.
   The big question is whether Democrats can turn that talk into action and convince voters that their agenda is best for Texas. If they don't, expect another GOP sweep next year.
   Ty Meighan is chief of the Scripps Howard Austin Bureau and can be reached at 512-334-6640 or meighant@scripps.com
  
  

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Ty Meighan is chief of the Scripps Howard Austin Bureau. You can reach him by phone at (512) 334-6640 or by email at meighant@scripps.com.

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