Saturday, March 10, 2001

Perry has big shoes to fill

   AUSTIN - Fair or not, Texans will compare Republican Gov. Rick Perry with former Gov. George W. Bush. And that's a tough standard for Perry to meet.
   Bush was a phenomenon in Texas. His job approval was higher than any governor in Texas history and even a majority of Democrats approved of his performance.
   As Texas Poll director, I have analyzed approval ratings of governors for years. And the most recent survey provides the first glimpse of what Texans think about Perry, who became governor on Dec. 21 after Bush resigned.
   Perry's job approval rating is 47 percent, which isn't earth-shattering, but it is 10 points higher than Bush's was in his first few months as governor in 1995. Bush's approval ratings eventually skyrocketed and stayed there until he left office.
   Although Bush's numbers were low when he took office, he had four years to prove himself before the next election. Perry doesn't have that luxury.
   Primary elections for governor are next March, followed by the general election in November. It's uncertain if anyone will challenge Perry in the primary, but a Democrat - perhaps Tony Sanchez of Laredo - will soon begin campaigning to replace him in the general election.
   One of Perry's main concerns could be within his own party. The 64 percent of Republicans who approve of his job performance is significantly lower than the 90 percent approval Bush received. Nine percent of Republicans disapprove of Perry but 27 percent don't know.
   The Republican numbers could be a concern for Perry if he has a strong challenger - such as U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison - in the primary. If Republicans are uncertain about Perry, they may look for someone else to support.
   Perry so far has not received the support of Democrats that Bush enjoyed. A majority of Democrats approved of Bush's performance as governor, but only 26 percent approve of Perry. Thirty-one percent of Democrats disapprove of Perry and 43 percent don't know. The good news for Perry is that only 18 percent of Texans disapprove of his job performance. On the downside, 35 percent of Texans don't know enough about the job he's doing to give an opinion. That's not unusual, especially since Perry has been in office a short time.
   But, again, Perry doesn't have much time to prove himself. This legislative session, which ends May 28, will test his leadership. Perry needs to strike a balance between pushing his agenda and knowing when to get out of the way so lawmakers can conduct their business.
   He has laid out his legislative priorities, which are fairly safe issues, such as improved highways, math initiatives for public schools and programs for higher education. Perry is smart to focus on education, which is consistently a top concern among Texans. He also is smart to focus on issues important to Hispanics, an ever-growing political force in Texas.
   Among ethnic groups, Hispanics give Perry the highest job approval rating - 49 percent - compared with 44 percent of Anglos and 34 percent of blacks. Hispanic support for Perry is not surprising.
   Perry's first appointment as governor was to appoint former state Rep. Henry Cuellar, a Democrat from Laredo, as secretary of state. Perry is also genuinely concerned about the border and Texas-Mexico relations. The Hidalgo Chamber of Commerce recently honored him as the 2001 Border Texan of the Year.
   Perry must work to convince all Texans of his accomplishments and prove to voters that he should keep the job for four more years.
   (Ty Meighan is chief of the Scripps Howard Austin Bureau and can be reached at 512-334-6640 or by email at meighant@scripps.com)
  
  

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Ty Meighan is chief of the Scripps Howard Austin Bureau. You can reach him by phone at (512) 334-6640 or by email at meighant@scripps.com.

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